Start with the good news.

The authorities are set to launch the National Equipment Identity Register (NEIR) on December 16, meant for blocking unauthorised mobile phones from entering the network.

In theory, the system should choke off illegal handset imports, support local manufacturers and steer buyers back to authorised retailers. That, in turn, would lift tax receipts and bring order to a market long dominated by the grey trade.

Now the catch.

Although the launch date coincides with Victory Day, the system's core function will remain switched off. No handset will actually be blocked till the third week of March next year.

That partial launch goes a long way towards explaining small mobile phone traders taking to the streets frequently in recent weeks.

The grey market now accounts for as much as 60 percent of handset sales, according to industry estimates, and thousands of small traders depend on it for survival.

There is also a sense of déjà vu.

This is not the first time NEIR has been launched with fanfare. Four years ago, the telecom regulator rolled out a similar system at a cost of Tk 29 crore, albeit funded by taxpayers, only to quietly shelve it.

In 2021, the plan was dropped after officials discovered millions of unauthorised phones active on the network. Blocking them risked a public backlash.

And this time, the launch again avoids the hardest part of enforcement, as protests intensify nationwide.

Authorities now say March 26 will mark the full phase launch. From that date, handsets that fail to show valid import documents within three months of entering Bangladesh are expected to be cut off from telecom networks.

The Bangladesh Telecommunication Regulatory Commission (BTRC) announced the revival of NEIR in late October to curb illegal imports, reduce theft, prevent the use of unregistered devices and protect local manufacturers from unfair competition. The system is also pitched as a tool to help law enforcement trace crimes involving mobile phones.

Unofficial traders have pushed back hard. With import taxes reaching as high as 59 percent and procedures widely seen as cumbersome, they warned that full enforcement could wipe out their businesses unless taxes are lowered and rules simplified.

However, local manufacturers see things differently. Companies that began investing in Bangladesh from 2017 argue that without NEIR, their factories and jobs are at risk.

They say the grey market controls between 50-60 percent of sales. Estimates presented at a BTRC event suggest the government loses about Tk 2,000 crore a year in unpaid taxes due to illegal handset trading.

Over the NEIR launch, civil rights groups have also raised alarms.

Some analysts argue that IMEI-based registration under the blocking system shifts the cost of regulatory failure onto consumers, potentially locking out low-income users. Others warn that it could widen state surveillance in a country with a fragile data protection record.

The government has dismissed those concerns, saying legal safeguards, oversight mechanisms and strict penalties for data misuse are already in place.

Public concern, however, has proved harder to calm. Despite repeated assurances that existing unofficial phones will not be disconnected, many users remain uneasy. Those who bought devices from unofficial sellers or received phones from relatives abroad fear they could eventually be left with useless handsets.

NEIR's past troubles have only deepened the scepticism.

More than Tk 29 crore in public funds was spent under the previous Awami League government on failed attempts to make the system work.

On November 25, 2020, BTRC signed a contract with a joint venture of Synesis IT, Radisson and Computer World to supply and operate NEIR, followed by a trial run in July 2021.

That trial showed millions of unauthorised phones in use, alongside technical glitches such as hundreds of feature phones sharing a single IMEI number. Full enforcement, the authorities feared, would trigger widespread backlash.

Although the system was formally launched on November 1, 2021, without the blocking feature, it delivered little. The grey market kept expanding to the frustration of local manufacturers.

The latest revival began early this year, when BTRC moved to award a Tk 5.67 crore contract to Synesis IT Ltd for maintenance and database licensing. The plan was later scrapped after protests over the lack of an open tender, including objections from the Bangladesh Association of Software and Information Services (BASIS).

With the tender stalled, the Mobile Phone Industry Owners Association stepped in, offering to finance the revival.

Meanwhile, amid protest, BTRC also tried to cool tempers by simplifying import and vendor enlistment rules. Fewer documents will be required for vendor certificates, approvals should come faster, and unsold handsets already in the market may be regularised. The government has also pledged to cut import taxes.

Yet politics looms large. With the national election set for February 12 next year and handset blocking delayed until March 26, enforcement will fall to the next government.

The Bangladesh Nationalist Party (BNP) has already said that if elected to office, it would review NEIR in consultation with stakeholders.

For now, the question remains unresolved. Will the next administration finally switch on NEIR's core function, or will the system once again fall short of its promise?